Accountability
We grade ourselves in public.
Losses get autopsies. The model is versioned. Every gate flip and calibration update is logged with a date. Nothing is quietly removed to make the record look cleaner — if a pick lost, it stays in the ledger and it gets a post-mortem when review is complete.
The credibility of every future pick depends on the integrity of the existing record. That is the only reason transparency is worth doing.
Loss autopsies
Hall of Misses
Every published non-bootstrap pick that settled as a loss is in the Loss Room. Post-mortems attach when operator review is complete. The original reasoning and signal snapshot stay visible regardless.
Open the Loss RoomCalibration report
Honest Band
The calibration report includes every settled canonical pick. Bootstrap-era picks are excluded by design — they do not get to inflate the record. Win rate stays gated until enough settled history exists to publish a number that is honest.
View Calibration ReportModel changelog
Ship log
Every model version, gate flip, and calibration update is logged publicly with a date and a reason. The changelog is how the record stays readable over time — not just a snapshot of where things stand today.
Read the ChangelogTamper-evident record
Proof of Record
Every settled pick carries a Merkle leaf hash stamped at generation time. Change a pick after the fact and the hash breaks. The Merkle root over all settled picks is published publicly so anyone can re-derive it and verify the record.
View Proof of RecordWhat these surfaces cover
- Loss autopsies
- Root-cause analysis, signal snapshot, model version, what we saw vs. what happened, and what changed afterward.
- Calibration
- Win rate by sport, push rate, sample size, Honest Band (uncertainty range), and the methodology behind the numbers.
- Model versions
- Every pick carries a model version tag. The changelog links those tags to what changed in the scoring logic.
The commitment
- No pick is removed from the ledger once settled — wins and losses stay.
- Bootstrap-era picks are excluded from the win-rate denominator and labelled as such.
- Post-mortems are written by the operator, not generated — they go through review before publishing.
- Model versions are semantic and auditable — every settled pick carries the version that produced it.
- The calibration gate does not open until the settled sample is large enough to publish a number that is honest.
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