Risk, made legible
Parlay MRI
Most apps sell you the payout. We show you the genome. Every leg carries risk; the ticket as a whole has vitals you can read — survivability, expected value, the house edge compounding across legs, and the same-game correlation the book already priced. Operate on it and watch the math move.
The Portfolio Surgeon
Illustrative legs · transparent mathThe ticket · 5/5 legs
Ticket vitals
MutatedSurvivability
2%
chance all legs hit
Expected value
-20.8%
per $1 staked
Headline payout
36.32×
+3532 American
Fair payout
45.83×
zero-vig break-even
House edge
21%
compounded across legs
Correlation
1 group
hidden same-game ties
Surgeon's notes
- “Home −3.5” and “Over 47.5 · same game” share Game 1. The book prices that correlation; treating them as independent overstates your odds — consider dropping one.
- Expected value is -20.8% per $1. The headline payout is mostly the vig compounding across 5 legs — a payout illusion.
- “Longshot prop” is a longshot (29%) dragging survivability. Removing it lifts the chance all legs hit to 8%.
If you played these as singles instead
Average expected value -4.4% per leg, and a 96% chance at least one returns — versus a 98% chance the parlay returns nothing. The multiplied payout is the multiplied risk.
Why we built this
The whole industry hypes the longshot ticket. We'd rather make its fragility legible. This tool runs on illustrative legs and transparent math you can check — its job is to teach how parlay structure changes the odds, so the smartest move is often the one you don't make.